Gold has recently staged an emphatic breakout above long-standing resistance levels, defying short-term overbought signals and reinforcing its structural bull trend. The August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, released on Friday, September 5, 2025, showed a significant jobs miss and acted as a powerful accelerant for this move. This report examines the technical and macro underpinnings of gold's rally, maintaining a high-level bullish perspective consistent with Crestrado's thesis, and connects the current setup to our longer-term targets.
The NFP Shockwave: A Catalyst for the Breakout
The August 2025 NFP report was a game-changer for the market. It revealed a paltry **22k** jobs added to the economy, a dramatic miss compared to the **75k** consensus forecast. This data shattered the soft-landing narrative and provided the Federal Reserve with overwhelming justification to pivot toward monetary easing. The market immediately repriced the probability of a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting to nearly **100%**.
This news triggered a violent repricing across asset classes. Gold, as the primary beneficiary of a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, surged to a new all-time high. Gold spot prices reached **$3,599.61** per ounce in response to the NFP report, briefly touching near **$3,600** per ounce, a level that had served as a key resistance point. Silver also rallied in sympathy, reaching a 14-year high of **$40.96** per ounce on the same day, reinforcing its own bullish trend.
This market shock also caused a notable reaction in equity markets. The S&P 500, which had been at record highs, pulled back on the news, demonstrating a renewed sense of uncertainty among investors despite the new highs.
Technical Breakout Above Major Resistance Levels
Gold's multi-year breakout is a defining feature of the current market. The weekly chart shows gold's decade-long consolidation from 2011 to 2023 culminating in a decisive breakout above the **$2,100/oz** resistance in early 2024. This structural breakout unleashed a powerful rally, with gold spot prices reaching a new all-time high and confirming a new long-term bull market phase, with the path of least resistance now upward.
The technical measured projection from this pattern points toward the **$3,800–$4,000/oz** range in the coming months, aligning with Crestrado's longer-term bullish targets. The price action has been so robust that it has invalidated traditional overbought signals on medium-term charts, a hallmark of a powerful trend where technical indicators are overwhelmed by sustained buying interest.
The Macroeconomic Tailwinds Supporting Gold's Bull Market
A confluence of macroeconomic factors is bolstering gold's advance. In Crestrado's view, the current environment is unusually supportive for precious metals.
- Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed's stance has evolved from a headwind last year to a tailwind now. The NFP data has cemented expectations for a dovish pivot, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.
- Inflation Trends and Real Yields: Lingering risks of inflation from tariffs mean gold remains an essential hedge. Despite positive real rates, gold has rallied in this cycle, suggesting it is increasingly viewed as a geopolitical hedge and preferred reserve asset.
- Geopolitical Tensions and De-dollarization: Ongoing conflicts and political policy uncertainty drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Central banks are voracious buyers of gold, a trend driven by the desire to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar. This provides a structural bid for gold that is insulated from the economic cycle.
- The Weakening U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar is on a weakening trajectory, which often moves inversely to gold. The NFP report shattered the narrative of U.S. economic exceptionalism and the dollar's yield advantage, reinforcing a bearish outlook for the DXY and directly supporting gold.
Conclusion: The Bullish Asymmetry Is Clear
Gold's recent performance breaking through major resistance, shrugging off overbought signals, and leveraging macro tailwinds underscores the strength of this bull market. The interplay of technical forces with macro drivers has created a potent formula for sustained upside. Our analysis is clear and confident: the high-level trend for gold is upward, supported by an array of positive factors.
Following its decisive breakout, gold is now in a healthy consolidation phase, holding its gains below the **$3,600** psychological level. This tactical pause is not a sign of weakness, but a necessary digestion of gains that purges excess leverage and prepares the market for the next potential leg of the rally. The price action in the coming days and weeks will be critical to determine if gold can hold its new gains and launch the next leg of its rally, particularly with a key CPI report on the horizon.
The current setup offers an attractive asymmetric opportunity favoring the bulls, as the fundamental and technical narratives coalesce. We reaffirm our bullish thesis on gold and will continue to monitor for any shifts, but as of now, the strategic foresight points to gold not losing its luster anytime soon.
Disclaimer: This article represents Crestrado's perspective based on current analysis and is for informational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Market conditions can change rapidly.